A recent YouGov MRP poll reveals a dramatic shake-up in the UK’s political landscape if a general election were held today. The poll predicts Labour would lose its majority, falling by 233 seats and becoming only the second-largest party in a hung parliament. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is forecasted to emerge as the largest party.
YouGov’s projections show Reform UK securing 271 seats, Labour trailing with 178, and the Liberal Democrats in third place with 81 seats. The Conservative Party faces a significant decline, dropping to just 46 seats—76 fewer than the current parliament.
Scotland’s political scene remains dominated by the Scottish National Party (SNP), which is expected to retain its position as the largest party north of the border with 38 seats. The Greens are also expected to increase their presence, gaining an additional three seats for a total of seven.
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The poll paints a new political map for Gloucestershire. Currently, Labour holds Gloucester, Stroud, and Forest of Dean, while the Liberal Democrats represent Tewkesbury, Cheltenham, and South Cotswolds. The Conservatives maintain only one seat in North Cotswolds. Under the YouGov prediction, the landscape shifts to:
- Gloucester: Reform
- Cheltenham: Liberal Democrat
- Tewkesbury: Liberal Democrat
- Stroud: Labour
- Forest of Dean: Reform
- South Cotswolds: Liberal Democrat
- North Cotswolds: Liberal Democrat
This shift would see Labour lose Gloucester and Forest of Dean to Reform UK. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats would hold their existing seats and gain North Cotswolds from the Conservatives.
Reflecting on the 2025 Gloucestershire local elections, Reform became the second-largest party with 11 councillors, trailing behind the Liberal Democrats’ 27 councillors. The Conservatives suffered heavily, losing 20 seats and retaining just six councillors.
Nationally, YouGov predicts Reform will gain seats from all three major parties: taking 194 from Labour, 69 from the Conservatives, and two from the Liberal Democrats. Labour is also anticipated to lose seats to the SNP in Scotland, the Conservatives in England, and smaller gains to the Greens, Plaid Cymru, and Liberal Democrats.
Notably, Reform UK’s strongest projected gains include Castle Point in Essex, currently a Conservative seat, where they would command 43% of the vote. In Barnsley North, a Labour seat, Reform is predicted to capture 42% of the vote. Other key Labour constituencies showing strong Reform support at around 40% include Dudley, Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes, Easington, Makerfield, Rawmarsh & Conisbrough, Stoke-on-Trent North, Amber Valley, Normanton & Hemsworth, Hornchurch & Upminster, South West Norfolk, and North Warwickshire & Bedworth.
This poll signals a potential political realignment in the UK, with Reform UK emerging as a formidable force poised to disrupt traditional party strongholds and reshape parliamentary dynamics.