A former nuclear protection specialist has identified four UK sites that could become targets amid escalating tensions with Iran, with three located in the South West. This follows a joint US-Israeli strike over the weekend of February 28 aimed at destabilising Iran’s regime, sparking retaliatory actions throughout the Gulf region.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has rejected using British bases to launch attacks on Iran, making clear that the UK does not support “regime change from the skies.” Nonetheless, he affirmed the use of UK bases for defensive operations to protect allies threatened by Iranian retaliation.
Recent events include an attack drone strike on RAF Akrotiri, a British military airbase on Cyprus, and assaults on sites in the UAE’s Dubai, a frequent destination for British visitors. Intelligence now suggests Iran is “very likely” to intensify attacks on UK assets.
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Gene Sticco, a former US Air Force nuclear protection specialist with experience safeguarding energy firms such as Shell and BHP, shared his expert perspective on the “unpredictable” and “deteriorating” situation. He believes Starmer’s stance may be perceived by Iran as indirect participation in the conflict.
While a direct attack on the UK mainland remains unlikely—due to Iran’s limited conventional military reach—Sticco highlights four potential targets within the UK. He explains: “Key military infrastructure vulnerable to unconventional or cyber attacks includes RAF Fairford, naval bases at Portsmouth and Devonport, and GCHQ in Cheltenham, although GCHQ would primarily be a cyber target.”
RAF Fairford, situated on the Gloucestershire-Wiltshire border, is historically used by the US for long-range bombing operations and is reportedly prepared for use in this conflict. Portsmouth’s HMNB Portsmouth hosts nearly two-thirds of the Royal Navy’s surface fleet, including aircraft carriers HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales. HMNB Devonport in Plymouth is Western Europe’s largest naval base, home to amphibious assault ships, research vessels, and frigates. Meanwhile, GCHQ in Cheltenham is the UK’s top intelligence, security, and cyber agency.
Sticco expresses greater concern over covert operations rather than conventional warfare. “Iran has maintained intelligence networks across the UK and Europe for decades,” he notes. “If Iran acts on UK soil, likely methods include cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, assaults on Israeli or Jewish community targets, or strikes on military or government-related sites.”
He anticipates a heightened UK terror threat level, warning that while a major military strike is improbable, the threat is subtle, asymmetric, and difficult to detect, with cyberattacks on facilities like GCHQ being prime risks.
In terms of public safety, Sticco advises Britons to remain vigilant: “During elevated threats, staying informed, aware of your surroundings, and following government guidance is crucial. The UK’s security services are highly effective at disrupting plots, though no system is infallible, especially under the strain of a crisis.”
As of March 2, over 102,000 British citizens registered their presence in the Middle East, with Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper estimating up to 300,000 UK nationals across the Gulf. Sticco urges those in the region to evacuate if possible, encouraging acceptance of government evacuation offers.