The Met Office has recently deployed a state-of-the-art supercomputer designed to significantly improve the accuracy of 14-day weather forecasts, matching the reliability previously limited to seven-day predictions. This advancement promises earlier and more precise warnings of extreme weather events, bolstering public safety and preparedness.
Powered by Microsoft’s cloud platform, Azure, this supercomputer marks a major evolution in the Met Office’s 60-year history of supercomputing, traditionally reliant on in-house systems. For over a month, Azure operated alongside the previous supercomputer before its retirement, enabling a seamless transition to the new system.
Charles Ewen, Chief Information Officer at the Met Office, highlighted the supercomputer’s impact: “This new technology will allow us to provide 14-day forecasts with the same accuracy we currently achieve for about seven to nine days.” He explained that their forecasting relies on numerical weather prediction—a complex process that uses physics laws applied to atmospheric data, demanding immense computational power. “Each day, we process 200 to 300 terabytes of data to simulate the atmosphere’s future state,” Ewen noted.
Leading environmental researcher Segolene Berthou elaborated on how the improved computing power enables running multiple simulations with varied parameters. “Because the atmosphere is chaotic, running these diverse models increases our ability to predict extreme conditions well in advance,” she said. Berthou also emphasized that the new supercomputer runs coupled climate models more smoothly, boosting confidence in long-term climate projections.
The cloud-based system extends beyond forecasting, enhancing access to vast climate data archives and opening avenues for integrating artificial intelligence into forecasting workflows. However, the Met Office acknowledges challenges in optimally combining machine learning with supercomputing resources. To address this, it is investing in specialized training and advanced degrees for its researchers.
Simon Vosper, Science Director at the Met Office, expressed optimism about the upgrades: “The increased capacity allows us to improve resolution, execute more models, and incorporate sophisticated scientific elements, accelerating the advancement of our meteorological science.”
The Met Office underlines the critical role its forecasts play across sectors such as aviation, defense, infrastructure, and maritime navigation, as well as daily life activities. The decision to collaborate with Microsoft followed an extensive evaluation process aimed at ensuring the highest technological standards for mission-critical operations.