Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is enduring what many political analysts are calling the most difficult start ever for a newly-elected UK Prime Minister. Despite Labour’s commanding majority following the 2024 General Election, the government has faced significant backlash and setbacks, notably over proposed welfare reforms.
Sir John Curtice, a renowned polling expert and professor of politics at Strathclyde University, highlighted on Times Radio the rapid decline in support for Starmer’s government. He noted a “gradual erosion” of public backing since the party’s historic win, citing controversies surrounding cuts and partial reversals in welfare benefits like the Winter Fuel Allowance and proposed tweaks to inheritance tax.
Curtice remarked on Talk TV: “Compared with other newly elected governments, this government’s support has dipped more steeply and quickly than any before it. It’s important to remember that despite their landslide majority, Labour only secured 35% of the vote—the lowest ever for a majority government.”
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The government recently bowed to internal and external pressures by scaling back proposed cuts to Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment (PIP). Labour MPs raised concerns that these rushed measures would disproportionately impact vulnerable individuals dependent on these benefits. Although the welfare reform bill passed its second reading with a comfortable margin, the episode revealed weakened party discipline and diminished control within Labour’s ranks.
The scaling back of welfare reforms has significantly reduced the forecasted budgetary savings, raising questions about whether the government will need to introduce further tax increases or spending cuts in its upcoming Autumn Budget.
Conservative opposition leader Kemi Badenoch slammed the government’s approach, calling the welfare bill “a total waste of time” that achieves no meaningful savings or improvements. She urged Labour to reconsider its strategy, stating, “Starmer cannot govern.”
The government’s early struggles have ignited a heated debate among the public and political commentators alike about the future direction of Starmer’s leadership and Labour’s ability to deliver on its promises.